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The Cranky Taxpayer |
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The Police Department database gives a snapshot of what is happening in the Forest Hill area. First the geography: In the Police database, the Forest Hill Neighborhood runs from the Park to Westover Hills Blvd. and from Forest Hill Ave. to the River:
As you see, this does not include all of the Forest Hill Neighborhood Association area and does include some of the Westover Hills Association area. Microsoft has a nice view of the area. Warning: The data below by block are distorted in a few cases by counting only one side of the street on the boundary. For example, the data for the 4400 block of Forest Hill Ave. include only the odd numbers, i.e., those on the north side of the street. Here are the offense counts for the Forest Hill Neighborhood for 1/1/00 through 4/30/08, sorted with the most numerous first. I have highlighted the drug, violent, and weapons offenses for emphasis.
You might notice the single promiscuous shooting report. If you live near the park, you know there's been a lot more than one instance of gunfire, especially before they installed the gates. Part of the discrepancy may reflect the problem of the vanishing 911 calls. The Good News here is that the most numerous offenses are nonviolent. Property crimes dominate the list, as one might expect for a residential area. In fact, counting down the list, 82% of the offenses are in property crime categories reported more frequently than the most frequent violent offense, simple assault. The Bad News is that our most common crime is almost completely preventable. *** Sermon Begins *** By far the most common offense (32% in this time frame) is "Theft from Motor Vehicle." That crime (and much of the property destruction that reflects broken car windows) would entirely disappear if we (and the people who visit in our neighborhood, see below) would lock our stuff in the trunk or take it into the house. Indeed, our bad habits in this respect have the unfortunate effect of chumming the neighborhood to attract criminals. This is a particularly clear demonstration of the general proposition (one you will see stated elsewhere in these pages) that "they" (being the cops, the City, the federal government, the schools, or anybody else you choose to blame) are not responsible for solving our crime problem; we must do it. *** Sermon Ends *** Aside from the low rate of violent crime in our neighborhood, the Very Good News is that the crime rate is decreasing:
The dark blue line is the raw count of offenses by year. The orange line is the computer's straight line fit to those data. There's no particular reason to expect the numbers to lie on a straight line. Nonetheless, the R2 value tells us that the time variable explains over 62% of the variance in the number of offenses reported. To the extent the line gives a decent measure of the trend, it shows a decrease of 12.3 offense reports per year (i.e., 6.3% per year). Much of the decrease has been driven by a decrease in thefts from motor vehicles.
The blue curve there is the same as the one in the graph above, a count by year of the total number of offenses reported in the neighborhood. The red curve is the thefts from motor vehicle. See below for one reason for the decrease in thefts from vehicles in 2006 & 2007. Turning to location, here are the blocks with the most offenses reported:
For a complete list, sorted by address, follow this link.
The Top Five Blocks First: 4200 Riverside Drive (17.3% of the reports). A graph showing the numbers for the top twelve blocks emphasizes how far out of line the count is at the 4200 block:
Over half the offense reports in the block are thefts from motor vehicles.
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