The Police Department database gives a snapshot of what is happening in the Forest Hill area.
First the geography: In the Police database, the Forest Hill Neighborhood runs from the Park to Westover Hills Blvd. and from Forest Hill Ave. to the River:
As you see, this does not include all of the Forest Hill Neighborhood Association area and does include some of the Westover Hills Association area.
Microsoft has a nice view of the area.
Warning: The data below by block are distorted in a few cases by counting only one side of the street on the boundary. For example, the data for the 4400 block of Forest Hill Ave. include only the odd numbers, i.e., those on the north side of the street.
Here are the offense counts for the Forest Hill Neighborhood for 1/1/00 through 12/30/08, sorted with the most numerous first. I have highlighted the drug, violent, and weapons offenses for emphasis.
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 398 | 32.6% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 202 | 16.6% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 77 | 6.3% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 67 | 5.5% |
| HIT AND RUN | 61 | 5.0% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 51 | 4.2% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 47 | 3.9% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 30 | 2.5% |
| NATURAL DEATH | 24 | 2.0% |
| THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES | 24 | 2.0% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 19 | 1.6% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 17 | 1.4% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY | 14 | 1.1% |
| ALL OTHER OFFENSES | 13 | 1.1% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC | 13 | 1.1% |
| DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION | 12 | 1.0% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/OUTBUILDING | 11 | 0.9% |
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 9 | 0.7% |
| INDECENT EXPOSURE | 8 | 0.7% |
| ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL | 8 | 0.7% |
| TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY | 8 | 0.7% |
| IMPERSONATION | 7 | 0.6% |
| COURT DOCUMENTS | 6 | 0.5% |
| DRUNKENNESS | 5 | 0.4% |
| FORGERY BY CHECK | 5 | 0.4% |
| SHOOTING AT/WITHIN OCCUPIED DWELLING | 5 | 0.4% |
| FOUND PROPERTY | 4 | 0.3% |
| FRAUD, CREDIT CARD | 4 | 0.3% |
| LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 4 | 0.3% |
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 3 | 0.2% |
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 3 | 0.2% |
| SUICIDE | 3 | 0.2% |
| TAMPERING WITH AUTO | 3 | 0.2% |
| THREATEN BODILY HARM | 3 | 0.2% |
| UNINTENTIONAL DEATH | 3 | 0.2% |
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS | 3 | 0.2% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE/GRAFFITI | 2 | 0.2% |
| FORCIBLE RAPE | 2 | 0.2% |
| FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD | 2 | 0.2% |
| KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION | 2 | 0.2% |
| RECOVERED VEHICLE-STOLEN OTHER JURIS. | 2 | 0.2% |
| RUNAWAY | 2 | 0.2% |
| SHOPLIFTING | 2 | 0.2% |
| STALKING | 2 | 0.2% |
| THEFT OF MOPED/OTHER VEHICLE TYPE | 2 | 0.2% |
| THROW MISSILE AT OCCUPIED DWELLING | 2 | 0.2% |
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON | 2 | 0.2% |
| ACCIDENTAL DEATH | 1 | 0.1% |
| AGGR ASSAULT ATTEMPTED MURDER | 1 | 0.1% |
| BOMB THREAT | 1 | 0.1% |
| BURGLARY | 1 | 0.1% |
| CRUELTY TO ANIMALS | 1 | 0.1% |
| DEATH BY DROWNING | 1 | 0.1% |
| DEATH INVESTIGATION (MATTER PENDING) | 1 | 0.1% |
| DUI, ALCOHOL | 1 | 0.1% |
| FALSE PRETENSES/SWINDLE/CONFIDENCE GAME | 1 | 0.1% |
| FORGERY/COUNTERFEITING/ALL OTHER | 1 | 0.1% |
| FRAUD, ATM | 1 | 0.1% |
| FRAUD/FORGERY INCIDENT | 1 | 0.1% |
| GAS DRIVE OFF | 1 | 0.1% |
| LOST / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 1 | 0.1% |
| NON-REPORTABLE OFFENSES | 1 | 0.1% |
| OBSTRUCTING JUSTICE | 1 | 0.1% |
| PROMISCUOUS SHOOTING | 1 | 0.1% |
| PURSE SNATCHING | 1 | 0.1% |
| ROBBERY/BANK | 1 | 0.1% |
| ROBBERY/CARJACKING | 1 | 0.1% |
| SEXUAL BATTERY | 1 | 0.1% |
| STOLEN PROPERTY OFFENSES | 1 | 0.1% |
| SUDDEN DEATH | 1 | 0.1% |
| UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE | 1 | 0.1% |
| Grand Total | 1220 |
You might notice the single promiscuous shooting report. If you live near the park, you know there's been a lot more than one instance of gunfire, especially before they installed the gates. Part of the discrepancy may reflect the problem of the vanishing 911 calls.
The Good News here is that the most numerous offenses are nonviolent. Property crimes dominate the list, as one might expect for a residential area. In fact, counting down the list, 82% of the offenses are in property crime categories reported more frequently than the most frequent violent offense, simple assault.
The Bad News is that our most common crime is almost completely preventable.
*** Sermon Begins ***
By far the most common offense (32.6% in this time frame) is "Theft from Motor Vehicle." That crime (and much of the property destruction that reflects broken car windows) would entirely disappear if we (and the people who visit in our neighborhood, see below) would lock our stuff in the trunk or take it into the house. Indeed, our bad habits in this respect have the unfortunate effect of chumming the neighborhood to attract criminals.
This is a particularly clear demonstration of the general proposition (one you will see stated elsewhere in these pages) that "they" (being the cops, the City, the federal government, the schools, or anybody else you choose to blame) are not responsible for solving our crime problem; we must do it.
*** Sermon Ends ***
Aside from the low rate of violent crime in our neighborhood, the Very Good News is that the crime rate is decreasing:
The dark blue line is the raw count of offenses by year. The orange line is the computer's straight line fit to those data. There's no particular reason to expect the numbers to lie on a straight line. Nonetheless, the R2 value tells us that the time variable explains over 74% of the variance in the number of offenses reported. To the extent the line gives a decent measure of the trend, it shows a decrease of 16.2 offenses reported per year (i.e., 7.4% of the initial count per year).
Much of the decrease has been driven by a decrease in thefts from motor vehicles.
The blue curve there is the same as the one in the graph above, a count by year of the total number of offenses reported in the neighborhood. The red curve is the thefts from motor vehicle. See below for one reason for the decrease in thefts from vehicles in 2006 & 2007.
Turning to location, here are the blocks with the most offenses reported:
| Block | Count | % |
| 4200 Block RIVERSIDE DR | 209 | 17.1% |
| 4400 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 64 | 5.2% |
| 4100 Block RIVERSIDE DR | 61 | 5.0% |
| 2200 Block RIVERSIDE DR | 49 | 4.0% |
| 4800 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 30 | 2.5% |
| 4100 Block HILLCREST ROAD | 30 | 2.5% |
| 4700 Block KING WILLIAM ROAD | 26 | 2.1% |
| 4500 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 26 | 2.1% |
| 4700 Block FOREST HILL AVE | 24 | 2.0% |
| 4400 Block STONEWALL AVE | 24 | 2.0% |
| 4600 Block DEVONSHIRE ROAD | 22 | 1.8% |
| 4100 Block STONEWALL AVE | 22 | 1.8% |
| 4200 Block SPRINGHILL AVE | 20 | 1.6% |
| 1800 Block W 42ND ST | 18 | 1.5% |
| 4300 Block SMITHDEAL AVE | 18 | 1.5% |
| * * * | ||
| Grand Total | 1220 | |
| Mean | 14.5 | |
| Median | 11 |
For a complete list, sorted by block, follow this link.
The Top Five Blocks
First: 4200 Riverside Drive (17.1% of the reports).
A graph showing the numbers for the top six blocks emphasizes how far out of line the count is at the 4200 block:
Over half the offense reports in the block are thefts from motor vehicles.
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 120 | 57% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 44 | 21% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 7 | 3% |
| ALL OTHER OFFENSES | 6 | 3% |
| INDECENT EXPOSURE | 5 | 2% |
| TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY | 3 | 1% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 3 | 1% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 3 | 1% |
| RECOVERED VEHICLE-STOLEN OTHER JURIS. | 2 | 1% |
| DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION | 2 | 1% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 2 | 1% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 1 | 0% |
| OBSTRUCTING JUSTICE | 1 | 0% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY | 1 | 0% |
| IMPERSONATION | 1 | 0% |
| COURT DOCUMENTS | 1 | 0% |
| CRUELTY TO ANIMALS | 1 | 0% |
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 1 | 0% |
| LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 1 | 0% |
| FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD | 1 | 0% |
| UNINTENTIONAL DEATH | 1 | 0% |
| FRAUD, CREDIT CARD | 1 | 0% |
| HIT AND RUN | 1 | 0% |
| Grand Total | 209 |
The location code descriptions of the thefts from motor vehicles in this block shows that most are in a parking lot.
| Location Code Description | Count |
| PARKING LOT / GARAGE | 111 |
| HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY | 52 |
| OTHER / UNKNOWN | 22 |
| FIELD / WOODS | 12 |
| RESIDENCE (SINGLE UNIT) | 7 |
| LAKE / WATERWAY | 2 |
| RESIDENCE (MULTIPLE UNITS) | 1 |
| CONVENIENCE STORE | 1 |
| LIQUOR STORE | 1 |
| Grand Total | 209 |
Some of the entries (notably the lake and multiple unit residence and the convenience and liquor stores) suggest that the officers don't pay a lot of attention to the location code.
Both of the drug reports are in "parking lot/garage." Likewise 25 of the 44 property destruction reports are from the parking lot.
The data comport with our experience: The problem in this block is the 42d St. parking lot of James River Park.
We have Good News here: The new gates (when they are closed) largely eliminate the nighttime disorder in the park. Most of the car breakins have been in the lower lot, presumably because the area is harder to see from the road. In 2006, Ralph White and his folks blocked off most of the parking spaces there.
The results were dramatic.
Second: 4400 block of Forest Hill Ave. (5.2% of the reports).
The numbers for the second worst block, 4400 Forest Hill, show a different pattern
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| NATURAL DEATH | 14 | 21.9% |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 7 | 10.9% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 4 | 6.3% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 4 | 6.3% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 4 | 6.3% |
| HIT AND RUN | 4 | 6.3% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 4 | 6.3% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 3 | 4.7% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 2 | 3.1% |
| SEXUAL BATTERY | 1 | 1.6% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 1 | 1.6% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC | 1 | 1.6% |
| KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION | 1 | 1.6% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 1 | 1.6% |
| LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 1 | 1.6% |
| BOMB THREAT | 1 | 1.6% |
| UNINTENTIONAL DEATH | 1 | 1.6% |
| SUDDEN DEATH | 1 | 1.6% |
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON | 1 | 1.6% |
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 1 | 1.6% |
| TAMPERING WITH AUTO | 1 | 1.6% |
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 1 | 1.6% |
| DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION | 1 | 1.6% |
| UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE | 1 | 1.6% |
| ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL | 1 | 1.6% |
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 1 | 1.6% |
| ACCIDENTAL DEATH | 1 | 1.6% |
| Grand Total | 64 |
Most of the reports in that block come from the nursing home at 4403:
| Offense Description | 4401 | 4403 | 4405 | 4407 | 44XX | Total |
| NATURAL DEATH | 14 | 14 | ||||
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 4 | 4 | ||||
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 1 | 3 | 4 | |||
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 4 | 4 | ||||
| HIT AND RUN | 4 | 4 | ||||
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 4 | 4 | ||||
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 3 | 3 | ||||
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| SEXUAL BATTERY | 1 | 1 | ||||
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 1 | 1 | ||||
| SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC | 1 | 1 | ||||
| KIDNAPPING/ABDUCTION | 1 | 1 | ||||
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 1 | 1 | ||||
| LOST / MISSING / SUSPICIOUS PROPERTY | 1 | 1 | ||||
| BOMB THREAT | 1 | 1 | ||||
| UNINTENTIONAL DEATH | 1 | 1 | ||||
| SUDDEN DEATH | 1 | 1 | ||||
| WEAPON LAW VIOLATIONS, CONCEALED WEAPON | 1 | 1 | ||||
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 1 | 1 | ||||
| TAMPERING WITH AUTO | 1 | 1 | ||||
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 1 | 1 | ||||
| DRUG/NARCOTIC VIOLATION | 1 | 1 | ||||
| UNAUTHORIZED USE OF A MOTOR VEHICLE | 1 | 1 | ||||
| ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL | 1 | 1 | ||||
| AGGRAVATED ASSAULT | 1 | 1 | ||||
| ACCIDENTAL DEATH | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Grand Total | 4 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 64 |
The natural deaths among the patients there probably are not a problem for the neighborhood. You have to wonder, however, about the drug violation, the kidnapping, the assaults, the robbery, and the weapon law violation at 4403.
Third: 4100 block of Riverside Drive (5.0% of the reports).
The 4100 Block of Riverside runs a distant third to the 4200 block. The problem there, again, is thefts from motor vehicles
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 34 | 55.7% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 10 | 16.4% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/CITY PROPERTY | 4 | 6.6% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 3 | 4.9% |
| HIT AND RUN | 1 | 1.6% |
| TRESPASS OF REAL PROPERTY | 1 | 1.6% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 1 | 1.6% |
| NATURAL DEATH | 1 | 1.6% |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE/GRAFFITI | 1 | 1.6% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 1 | 1.6% |
| SUSPICIOUS SITUATION/PERSON | 1 | 1.6% |
| FORGERY BY CREDIT CARD | 1 | 1.6% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 1 | 1.6% |
| FRAUD, CREDIT CARD | 1 | 1.6% |
| Grand Total | 61 |
in the parking lot of James River Park.
| Location Code Description | Count |
| PARKING LOT / GARAGE | 38 |
| HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY | 8 |
| OTHER / UNKNOWN | 7 |
| FIELD / WOODS | 3 |
| GOVERNMENT / PUBLIC BUILDING | 2 |
| CONSTRUCTION SITE | 1 |
| RESTAURANT | 1 |
| DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE | 1 |
| Grand Total | 61 |
The splendid numbers in 2006 (zero!)
probably reflect the lack of cars in the parking lot: The lot was closed for most of the year for installation of the new gates.
Fourth: 4800 Block Forest Hill (2.5% of the offenses)
| From looking at the table above, you might think the 2200 block of Riverside Drive is fourth. A glance at the geography shows it is not: This is the block of the 22d St. Paking lot of the Park (Yes! Another one!) but it is some 19 blocks out of the neighborhood. If you were to want to ask why it is included in the Forest Hill neighborhood, I would suggest you ask somebody downtown. |
The 4800 block of Forest Hill (the block from the Fire Station to the cleaners at the corner of Westover Hills) shows pretty much the pattern one expects in a commercial area:
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 6 | 20.0% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT | 5 | 16.7% |
| OBSCENE/THREATENING PHONE CALL | 3 | 10.0% |
| HIT AND RUN | 2 | 6.7% |
| THEFT FROM BUILDING | 2 | 6.7% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 2 | 6.7% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 1 | 3.3% |
| SIMPLE ASSAULT, DOMESTIC | 1 | 3.3% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/COMMERCIAL | 1 | 3.3% |
| GAS DRIVE OFF | 1 | 3.3% |
| STOLEN PROPERTY OFFENSES | 1 | 3.3% |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 1 | 3.3% |
| FOUND PROPERTY | 1 | 3.3% |
| THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES | 1 | 3.3% |
| ROBBERY/INDIVIDUAL | 1 | 3.3% |
| SHOOTING AT/WITHIN OCCUPIED DWELLING | 1 | 3.3% |
| Grand Total | 30 |
Fifth. 4100 Hillcrest (2.5%).
The 4100 block of Hillcrest suffers entirely from property crime,
| Offense Description | Count | % |
| DESTRUCTION PROPERTY/PRIVATE PROPERTY | 10 | 33.3% |
| THEFT FROM MOTOR VEHICLE | 9 | 30.0% |
| MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT | 5 | 16.7% |
| BURGLARY/B&E/RESIDENTIAL | 2 | 6.7% |
| ALL OTHER LARCENY | 2 | 6.7% |
| THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS/ACCESSORIES | 1 | 3.3% |
| ANNOYING PHONE CALLS | 1 | 3.3% |
| Grand Total | 30 |
most of it out in the street.
| Location Code Description | Count |
| HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY | 17 |
| RESIDENCE (SINGLE UNIT) | 9 |
| PARKING LOT / GARAGE | 4 |
| Grand Total | 30 |
Most of that looks to be the work of lowlives who were chummed into the neighborhood by the parking lot.
CONCLUSIONS
See elsewhere for an analysis of the drug problems near our neighborhood. Of course, the drug dealing and other disorder in the nearby apartment complexes contribute to the property and other crime in our peaceful neighborhood (and in the Park). Here is what a Justice Department Monograph says on that subject:
Drug dealing in apartment complexes can attract other nuisance behavior that diminishes the residents' quality of life, such as loitering; littering (including drug paraphernalia and used condoms); trespassing; prostitution (including illegal sexual activity on the property, in nearby yards, in alleys, or in driveways); drug use; abandoned vehicles; speeding vehicles; parking problems; unwanted additional foot, car and bicycle traffic in residential neighborhoods; public drinking; public urination; gang formation; graffiti (establishing turf ownership of a drug market); assaults; auto theft; auto breakins; residential and commercial burglaries; possession of and trafficking in stolen property; weapons violations (including gun possession and gun trafficking); robberies; drive-by shootings; or other violent crime (including homicide). This helps explain why successfully tackling a drug market can bring about substantial decreases in crime in the surrounding area.
These Forest Hill data suggest (at least) three conclusions:
-
We are our biggest crime problem (for leaving stuff in our vehicles);
-
The park is our next biggest crime problem (mostly car breakins and cruising, but some other really nasty stuff);
-
The nursing home needs a close looking over.