The Virginia State Police publish an annual report on Crime in Virginia. They count the "Type A" offenses by police unit:
Arson Assault Bribery Burglary Counterfeiting/Forgery Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property Drug/Narcotic Offenses Embezzlement Extortion/Blackmail Fraud Offenses Gambling Offenses Homicide Kidnapping/Abduction Larceny/Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Pornography/Obscene Material Prostitution Offenses Robbery Sex Offenses, Forcible & Nonforcible Stolen Property Offenses Weapon Law Violations These data have their peculiarities. The VSP reports the numbers by police agency. Thus, there is an entry both for the Farmville Police and the Prince Edward Sheriff, despite their overlap in the Town. They also report State Police offense reports; thus, the Richmond Police Department shows 21,914 offense reports and the State Police show 110 in Richmond. The report also includes data for the colleges, the Capitol Police, and state agencies such as the ABC Board. Finally, the small jurisdictions produce some weird statistics because even a small variation can produce a large change in the crime rate.
I produced the data below by leaving out the State Police and State agency numbers, as well as the jurisdictions with populations <10,000.
Here, then, are the 2008 data (pdf), expressed as Type A offenses per 100,000 population vs. population.[1]
Richmond is the gold square. The red diamonds, from the left, are the peer jurisdictions of Hampton, Newport News, and Norfolk.
There is no particular reason to expect these data to fit a straight line but Excel is happy to fit one, as you see. The slope suggests that the rate (per hundred thousand population) increases by 2.7 for a population increase of 1,000. The R2, however, tells us that population explains only about 1% of the variance in the crime rate, i.e., I wasted computer power to fit the line.
Here are the data for the "leaders." Among the jurisdictions with populations >10,000, we are ninth in the state, improved from fifth place in 2007.
Agency Population Rate/100K PETERSBURG BUREAU OF POLI 30489 18459.11 ROANOKE CITY POLICE DEPAR 92344 14849.9 DANVILLE POLICE DEPARTMEN 45152 13640.59 PORTSMOUTH LAW ENFORCEMEN 97599 12650.74 FREDERICKSBURG POLICE DEP 22544 12238.28 HOPEWELL POLICE DEPARTMEN 23263 11378.58 WINCHESTER POLICE DEPARTM 26209 11366.32 FRONT ROYAL POLICE DEPART 14565 11239.27 RICHMOND POLICE DEPARTMEN 195463 11211.32 CHARLOTTESVILLE POLICE DE 39638 10805.28 NEWPORT NEWS PD 180978 10618.41 RADFORD CITY DEPARTMENT O 15584 10170.68 CULPEPER POLICE DEPARTMEN 13497 10135.58 NORFOLK POLICE DEPARTMENT 235092 10099.87 LYNCHBURG POLICE DEPARTME 70734 10024.88 Here are the data for the largest jurisdictions and the State (The State datum is a grand total of offenses, including those reported to the State Police, colleges, state agencies, and jurisdictions with populations < 10K)
Agency Population Rate/100K FAIRFAX COUNTY POLICE DEP 980585 4037 VIRGINIA BEACH POLICE DEP 431451 6776 PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY POL 371449 4522 CHESTERFIELD COUNTY POLIC 303538 5748 HENRICO PD 291767 6273 LOUDOUN COUNTY SHERIFF'S 243323 3232 NORFOLK POLICE DEPARTMENT 235092 10100 CHESAPEAKE POLICE DEPARTM 216622 6723 ARLINGTON COUNTY POLICE 206822 4280 RICHMOND POLICE DEPARTMEN 195463 11211 NEWPORT NEWS PD 180978 10618 HAMPTON POLICE DIVISION 144204 7572 ALEXANDRIA POLICE DEPARTM 137947 5108 STAFFORD COUNTY SHERIFF'S 123690 3729 SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY SO ( 120615 4945 * * * Grand total
7769092 5830 Despite an almost 29% improvement since 2001, the 2008 Richmond rate remains 1.92 times the statewide average:
Viewed another way, Richmond's 2008 rate of 11,211 per 100,000 is equivalent to 11.2 offenses reported per 100 population.
The Type A total is driven by the property crime numbers: Typically, the larceny, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft numbers will account for 2/3 of the Type A total. To see how violent and drug crime is doing, we have to look underneath the totals.
When we do that, we see that the rate of simple assaults and aggravated assaults both dropped slightly.
Note: This graph and those immediately below report the raw counts of offenses reported in Richmond, not the count per 100K. Throughout this period, the Richmond population has been just under 200,000, with very little change, so you can get close to the rates per 100K by dividing these numbers by two.
The drug count continued a recent decline; robbery continued a long downward trend, and weapon law counts continued a long rise.
The rape, "other" (than rape) sex crimes, and arson held about even, ending recent decreases. Kidnapping and murder counts both continued to drop. The murder improvement since 2004 is nothing short of dramatic.
When we break out the data for 2008 by offense and by jurisdiction, still for populations > 10K, we see that the Richmond murder rate continues to be remarkably high, despite the recent, dramatic improvement. Here, again, Richmond is the gold square; the red diamonds are, from the left, Hampton, Newport News, and Norfolk. The three jurisdictions above 20 are, from the left, Grayson County, Smyth County, and Danville.
Note on the data: I have left Fairfax off the graph; their population of almost a million squeezes the other data into a jumble. Besides, their numbers are boringly low (see the total graph above or the large jurisdiction table above).
Here are some other Virginia data. In each case, Richmond is the gold square, Hampton, Newport News, and Norfolk are the red diamonds. As you see, the Richmond crime rates remain outrageously high. Despite the recent improvements, we still have a long way to go. Note particularly the high drug rate.
For a list of the hot blocks in Richmond see this page. And see this page for data showing a nice improvement in Forest Hill.
Much of Richmond's plethora of crime is drug-related.
To complement the crime rate, our schools are among the worst in the state and our public housing agency maintains a sanctuary for crime on its property. To support all this dysfunction, we pay some of the highest taxes in the state. Go figure.
[1] Mr. Westerberg of the State Police on July 9, 2008 kindly furnished a copy of the data as an Excel spreadsheet so I didn't have to copy the numbers out of the PDF file on the web.
