The Virginia State Police publish an annual report on Crime in Virginia. They count the "Type A" offenses by jurisdiction:
Arson Assault Bribery Burglary Counterfeiting/Forgery Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property Drug/Narcotic Offenses Embezzlement Extortion/Blackmail Fraud Offenses Gambling Offenses Homicide Kidnapping/Abduction Larceny/Theft Motor Vehicle Theft Pornography/Obscene Material Prostitution Offenses Robbery Sex Offenses, Forcible & Nonforcible Stolen Property Offenses Weapon Law Violations Here are the 2007 data, expressed as Type A offenses per 100,000 Population vs. population for the jurisdictions with populations >10,000.[1]
Richmond is the gold square. Norfolk is the red diamond. The green diamonds are, from the left, Hanover, Henrico, and Chesterfield
There is no particular reason to expect these data to fit a straight line but Excel is happy to fit one, as you see. The slope suggests that the rate (per hundred thousand population) increases by 3 for a population increase of 1,000. The R2, however, tells us that population explains only about 1% of the variance in the crime rate, i.e., I wasted computer power to fit the line.
Please note: These are offense reports and the State Police count them by the police department that received the report. Thus, the data include separate counts for the Farmville Police and the Prince Edward Sheriff, albeit those jurisdictions overlap in Farmville. Fortunately, the only ambiguity about Richmond and the other large jurisdictions is that there may be a few (generally a few tens) of reports from the State Police from within the jurisdiction. The data here do not include the State Police numbers. Likewise I have omitted the universities and the state agencies such as the Port Authority.
Here are the data for the "leaders." As you see, among the jurisdictions with populations >10,000, we are fifth in the state.
Department Population Rate/100K PETERSBURG BUREAU OF POLICE 31588 17662 ROANOKE CITY POLICE 93504 15060 FREDERICKSBURG POLICE 22218 12481 PORTSMOUTH LAW ENFORCEMEN 98543 12480 RICHMOND POLICE 195300 12256 DANVILLE POLICE 45385 12099 WINCHESTER POLICE 25896 12098 HOPEWELL POLICE 22695 11328 CULPEPER POLICE 13011 11029 CHARLOTTESVILLE POLICE 41274 10912 Here are the data for the largest jurisdictions and the State (a grand total of offenses, including those reported to Towns, the State Police, colleges, and the Port Authority)
Department Population Rate/100K FAIRFAX COUNTY POLICE 975762 4047 VIRGINIA BEACH POLICE 433033 7064 PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY POLICE 364459 4515 CHESTERFIELD COUNTY POLICE 298721 5914 HENRICO PD 289788 6272 NORFOLK POLICE DEPARTMENT 235987 10039 LOUDOUN COUNTY SHERIFF 232357 3163 CHESAPEAKE POLICE 216568 7080 ARLINGTON COUNTY POLICE 201163 4115 RICHMOND POLICE 195300 12256 NEWPORT NEWS PD 182478 10565 HAMPTON POLICE DIVISION 145862 8099 ALEXANDRIA POLICE 136732 5132 STAFFORD COUNTY SHERIFF 120387 3711 SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY 119907 4516 * * * STATE
7,712,089 5874 Despite an almost 25% improvement since 2002, the 2007 Richmond rate remains 2.09 times the statewide average:
Richmond's 2007 rate, 12,256 per 100,000, is equivalent to 12.26 per 100.
The Type A total is driven by the property crime numbers: Typically, the larceny, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft numbers will account for 2/3 of the Type A total. To see how violent crime is doing, we have to look underneath the totals.
When we do that, we see that the rate of simple assaults rose sharply while the aggravated assaults ended their recent decline.
Note: This graph and those immediately below report the raw counts of offenses reported in Richmond, not the count per 100K. Throughout this period, the Richmond population has been just under 200,000, with very little change, so you can get close to the rates per 100K by dividing these numbers by two.
The drug, robbery, and weapon law counts all dropped slightly.
The "other" (than rape) sex crimes, kidnapping, arson, rape, and murder counts all dropped.
When we break out the data for 2007 by offense and by jurisdiction, we see that the Richmond murder rate continues to be remarkably high in all respects. Here, again, Richmond is the gold square and Norfolk is the red diamond.
Note on the data: In this graph and those that follow, the data for the jurisdictions smaller than 10,000 again have been deleted. The per capita numbers can be misleading for small populations. I also have left Fairfax off the graph; their population of almost a million squeezes the other data into a jumble. Besides, their numbers are boringly low (see the total graph above or the large jurisdiction table above).
Here are some other Virginia data. In each case, Richmond is the gold square, Norfolk is the red diamond, and, from the left, the green diamonds are Hanover, Henrico, and Chesterfield. As you see, the Richmond crime rates remain outrageously high. Despite the recent decrease in the murder rate, we are second in Virginia. We also as second as to robbery and motor vehicle theft, fifth as to drug offenses and burglary, and sixth as to aggravated assaults.
Recalling that our overall Type A rate is just above twice the state average, it is unhappy news that our murder rate is about five times the state average and our robbery rate also is close to five times the average. The 979 Richmond robberies translate to one robbery per every 199 Richmond citizens.
For a list of the hot blocks in Richmond see this page. And see this page for data showing a nice improvement in Forest Hill.
Much of Richmond's plethora of crime is drug-related.
To complement the outrageous crime rate, our schools are among the worst in the state and our public housing agency maintains a sanctuary for crime on its property. To support all this dysfunction, we pay some of the highest taxes in the state. Go figure.
[1] Mr. Westerberg of the State Police on March 28, 2008 kindly furnished an advanced copy of the data as an Excel spreadsheet so I didn't have to wait for the final publication and copy the numbers out of the PDF file on the web.
